I last updated Parliament on the prison population in late February. Although population levels were still concerning at that point, we had seen a period of limited overall growth over the preceding four months.
Unfortunately, that has now changed. Over the past two months, the population has risen sharply, from 7,948 on 18 March to 8,348 this morning. Given that sudden increase, I felt it critical to keep Parliament updated, to outline what action is being taken in response and to highlight some stark and challenging decisions on which Parliamentary approval will be sought over the coming weeks and months.
The immediate cause of the sudden increase is unclear and the present rate of growth might not continue. However, with the population having increased by around 13 per cent since the start of 2023, there is extremely limited capacity to absorb even temporary increases.
This morning’s figure of 8,348 individuals in custody represents one of the highest-ever prison populations recorded in Scotland. There is now a critical risk to the continued safe and effective operation of the estate, with multiple prisons now being essentially full.
The Scottish Prison Service’s ability to deliver rehabilitative regimes has been severely curtailed; visits to prisoners are becoming difficult to maintain; and there are increasing challenges to the effective delivery of national health service services.
It is worth noting that we are not alone in that—England and Wales and Northern Ireland are facing similar challenges. The United Kingdom Government has announced a number of measures in response, including legislating for a presumption against short sentences; expanding provision that facilitates the early removal of foreign nationals; and continuing to extend its early release scheme, with recent reports suggesting that some prisoners might be released up to 70 days early, which represents an increase on last year’s figure of 18 days.
Significant work is already under way to address the issue. Since the population began rising again last year, the SPS has been at the forefront of managing the situation, and I would like to thank all those who are working in our prisons in increasingly challenging circumstances.
The SPS has kept its population management strategy under review to ensure the best use of the estate, including by introducing a centralised and more strategic process for prisoner transfers. It is also exploring the feasibility of adding temporary accommodation, as has been done in England and Wales. That is not a quick fix, but it might become necessary if numbers continue to rise. Excellent progress is being made to optimise the use of home detention curfew, which is informed by risk assessment with individuals who are released subject to licence conditions. There are currently 97 people on home detention curfew, which is an increase from around 50 to 60 previously. The SPS’s on-going work will benefit from a 10 per cent increase in its resource budget in 2024-25.
Looking beyond the SPS, we are taking action in a number of areas. We have increased funding for community justice by £14 million in 2024-25, to £148 million in total.
To address the high remand population, we have introduced electronically monitored bail and supported the expansion of bail supervision to all areas. The latest official statistics show that bail supervision is at record levels. We are preparing for the implementation of measures in early July that will enable courts to take into account time spent on electronically monitored bail in sentencing, as part of the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023. Later this year, commencement of provisions from the Children (Care and Justice) (Scotland) Bill, which was recently approved by Parliament, will end the imprisonment of under-18s, creating further capacity at HMP Polmont. We are also considering whether compassionate release could be used more broadly in appropriate cases, taking into account the ageing population and the prevalence of complex health and social care needs. In all this, we are working across the justice system and beyond, including with health and social care colleagues in particular, to identify potential solutions.
Despite all the steps that are under way, it is increasingly clear that further action is required. The measures that I have described will simply not have as large an impact as is necessary to avert a crisis—we should be in no doubt that that is what we are facing. If our prisons are to remain functional and able to house the most dangerous offenders, we have no choice but to take urgent action to reduce pressure on the estate. For that reason, I will be seeking Parliament’s input on, and consent for, three measures that I consider are now necessary.
The first is emergency release. On 26 May, we will bring into force section 11 of the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023, which was scrutinised by Parliament last year and which provides ministers with a power to release prisoners in emergency situations. My hope was that that power would never need to be used; however, as things stand today, my view is that we have reached the threshold for taking emergency action. The sudden and sharp rise in the prison population over recent weeks, combined with the fact that that population is already high, has significantly increased the risk to the health, safety and welfare of both prisoners and SPS staff, as well as to the security and the good order of the prison estate. Serious concerns have been formally raised with me by the chief executive of the SPS, His Majesty’s chief inspector of prisons and the Prison Governors Association.
If the legal test for use of emergency release is satisfied when the provisions come into force on 26 May, I intend to introduce a proposal for Parliament’s consideration as soon as possible within the following two weeks. Members will have the opportunity to scrutinise and debate the approach. In this instance, we will not release a single prisoner without Parliament’s consent. I also want to work with Parliament to expedite that process.
My intention is that those who are released would be serving sentences of under four years. Public safety will always be my priority. I can reassure Parliament that protections are in place so that no one who is serving a sentence for sexual offences or domestic abuse will be released, and a governor veto will also be available. We will engage with victims organisations, local authorities and other key partners in preparing for any release; initial meetings are under way.
This is not a decision that I take lightly and I fully appreciate the concerns that it will raise. However, we must ensure the safety and wellbeing of SPS staff and those who are in their care, and that our prisons continue to function effectively to accommodate those who pose the greatest risk of harm.
However, emergency release will not solve the problem in the longer term. Without more sustainable solutions, there is a risk that we will be faced with the same decision in a few months’ time. The second measure, therefore, is to look again at how we manage the release of long-term prisoners, which was last examined in detail almost a decade ago, when Parliament created the Prisoners (Control of Release) (Scotland) Act 2015. That act, in effect, abolished automatic early release for long-term prisoners. The rationale for doing so, which was to move towards a more individualised assessment of readiness for release, is still valid today. However, we also need to take into account the growing prison population, increasing average sentence lengths and the potential benefits of increasing the time that offenders spend on supervised release before the end of their sentence. My intention is to carry out a short consultative exercise over the summer and to return after the recess with a proposal for a bill for Parliament’s consideration to change how long-term prisoners are released.
Finally, I intend to introduce secondary legislation to amend the eligibility criteria for home detention curfew and increase the period of time that individuals can spend on release under licence conditions. As that will involve affirmative regulations that will require Parliament’s active agreement, I look forward to discussing the matter in detail with the Criminal Justice Committee in due course.
In taking that approach and combining emergency release with longer-term measures, my hope is that we can both mitigate the immediate crisis and start to address the trends that have brought us to this point. I fully appreciate the challenges in what I have set out, and working towards cross-party agreement on any measures to be taken will be critical. As I have said, we will not proceed with any of those measures without parliamentary approval. I have written to the justice spokespeople and invited them to meet me and the chief executive of the SPS, because how we respond to the situation goes beyond the Scottish Government and is rightly a matter for the whole Parliament. We will also publish a briefing paper to ensure that all MSPs have relevant background information.
I am genuinely open to discussing with the Opposition parties what options are available and how best to proceed, but I consider that we have no choice but to act if we are to avoid an unprecedented crisis developing. I will welcome members’ views this afternoon. I emphasise once again the need for this Parliament to consider in detail the critical situation that we are facing and to come to an agreed suitable response.