In my previous statement on the issue to Parliament in May, I set out the challenge that we face in addressing the prison population and the need for immediate and continued action. The difficult but necessary step of emergency release over the summer had an immediate impact. The population reduced from 8,270 to just below 7,900, and the risk to the safe operation of our prisons was temporarily averted. As I highlighted in May, the impact was expected to be temporary, and that has proved to be the case. The population has continued to rise and has once again reached critical levels. As of this morning, there are 8,322 people in custody, 27 per cent of whom are on remand.
This is not just about the numbers; it is also about the complex needs of the population and the persistent pressures on prison staff. I remain grateful to Scottish Prison Service staff for their continued resilience. I have seen at first hand their excellent work to maintain positive relationships in prisons and their ability to find solutions. The latest projections through to January 2025 indicate that the prison population will likely continue to rise. Without intervention, that would take us into an unsustainable position, and we cannot and must not allow that to transpire.
Over the past decade, the average length of prison sentences has increased, and there has been a consistently high remand population. There is no single lever to address that on-going rise, so we must continue to pursue a wide range of actions. Since my previous statement, the implementation of the Children (Care and Justice) (Scotland) Act 2024 and the transfer of all under-18s to secure care has freed up additional capacity at HMP Polmont. In addition, the Scottish Prison Service continues to maximise all available remaining capacity across the estate. Despite those efforts, those actions will only provide very short-term relief if population trends continue.
There is continued focus on optimising the use of home detention curfew. The number was reduced by emergency early release, and it is now rising again. It is currently around 107. I can confirm plans to lay regulations later this year to enable GPS technology to be used to monitor individuals being released on home detention curfew. Subject to parliamentary approval, those regulations will come into force in January 2025.
There are high levels of use of electronic monitoring. More than 2,100 people are being monitored on any given day, with electronically monitored bail now available in every local authority area. We are increasing our investment to address that significant challenge. In addition to the 10 per cent uplift in the Prison Service resource budget, we increased our funding to community justice by £14 million this year to further strengthen alternatives to custody. Building that capacity takes time, but recent statistics show a marked and sustained increase in the use of diversion from prosecution, structured deferred sentences and bail supervision. Those actions are having an impact and have reduced the growing population from where it would be without them. However, it is evident that further action is necessary across the justice system.
The independent functions of the justice system and decision making across it will always be fully respected. However, it is vital that partners collaborate to ensure that the system works effectively and in the shared understanding of the critical risk that an increasing prison population poses to the entire justice system. The Lord Advocate will update the Parliament after my statement, in her role as the independent head of the systems of criminal prosecution and the investigation of deaths. I am grateful to the Lord Advocate for her leadership and engagement on this important issue.
In my previous statement to the Parliament on the issue, I set out our intention to look at how we manage the release of long-term prisoners, and to consult on proposals for legislative change. The responses to our consultation, which sought views on bringing forward the point at which most long-term prisoners are released automatically, were thoughtful and constructive. An analysis of the responses has been published today. There is notable support for increasing the time that some long-term prisoners spend in the community under supervision as part of their sentence, and recognition of the benefits that that can bring. However, there are also concerns that changing the long-term prisoner release point at pace would present significant practical difficulties.
The need for any changes to take effect quickly prompted an exploration of alternative approaches. I noted with interest proposals from the Institute for Government in July, which included the option to change the release point for certain prisoners from the halfway point of their sentence to either 45 per cent or 40 per cent of it. The United Kingdom Government has recently implemented the latter, with a reported 1,700 released in September and more to come.
Although our justice systems are not the same, I intend to pursue a similar policy to change the point at which most short-term prisoners are released from 50 per cent of their sentence to after 40 per cent of their sentence has been served. That proposal would come with statutory exclusions in relation to domestic abuse and sexual offences, recognising the particular concerns that will arise about such offences. That will require primary legislation, which I plan to introduce in November. I will ask the Parliament’s permission to progress that on an emergency basis.
I remain committed to considering changes to the long-term prisoner release point and will seek subordinate legislation making powers in the bill that I intend to introduce to allow us to return to that issue. The immediate focus of the bill, however, will be on changing the release point for short-term prisoners. Short-term prisoners are those who are sentenced to less than four years in prison and are generally not subject to supervision on release. Therefore, that approach would result in relatively small changes to release dates, as well as avoiding some of the complexities that were highlighted in the consultation.
My intention is that any changes to the release point would apply to those who are already in custody in order to allow for there to be both an immediate and sustained impact on the prison population. We estimate that the new release point, after being implemented, could result in the prison population being between 260 and 390 lower than it would be without any changes being made. That will not resolve the prison population issue by itself but, importantly, it would be a sustainable action, rather than a temporary measure.
I very much recognise the concerns that arise from victims and their families and I am committed to working closely with victim support organisations. Public safety remains paramount, which is why I am focusing only on short-term prisoners, with built-in exemptions.
Although actions that can deliver a sustained reduction in the prison population are a priority, it is vital that plans are in place should the prison population reach the point at which more immediate action is needed. At this stage, it is not my intention to ask the Parliament to authorise the use of emergency early release again. However, I am aware that, if it is necessary and there is no alternative, it may be needed. Therefore, we will begin contingency planning on that option, working with key delivery partners, including victim support organisations, to learn from the emergency early release during the summer. We will ensure that plans are robust, with a clear focus on public protection.
I have outlined the vital steps that we must take towards addressing the rising prison population. I am, however, clear that further and deeper action will be needed. The challenges that we face are complex, and there is no single or straightforward solution. Of course, we must continue to tackle crime, building on the fact that recorded crime is down by almost 40 per cent since 2006-07. We must also continue to strengthen community justice. Community-based interventions and sentences help to ensure that justice is done, and they can be more effective than short-term custodial sentences in reducing reoffending and assisting with rehabilitation.
The safety and wellbeing of SPS staff and those in their care must remain at the forefront of our actions to ensure that prisons continue to function effectively. In addition, we must ensure that we have a prison estate that houses those who pose the greatest risk to the public, and which provides the full range of support that people need to enable them to leave on a better path and never turn back.
That will require a collective response, but it is necessary to deliver what we all want: less crime, fewer victims and safer communities.